Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 23.371626 25.462377 27.725716 30.370176 33.390738 36.751936 40.801198
2025-11-30 19.966830 22.792384 26.068159 30.194236 35.322025 41.581078 49.953678
2025-12-07 17.711679 20.948079 24.904777 30.199877 37.265294 46.625320 60.439397
2025-12-14 15.992031 19.444712 23.847162 30.038172 38.812532 51.310915 71.533028
2025-12-21 15.103450 18.837300 23.788586 31.090108 42.075365 58.938808 89.096814
2025-12-28 13.952400 17.730600 22.889137 30.777011 43.214610 63.508708 103.061091
2026-01-04 13.081839 16.904432 22.262698 30.733416 44.693750 68.866306 120.303068
2026-01-11 12.442821 16.332586 21.922392 31.047316 46.756436 75.654828 143.218536
2026-01-18 11.748788 15.616574 21.287723 30.792794 47.766971 80.672985 164.484614
2026-01-25 11.161746 15.007912 20.752890 30.622067 48.872879 86.119311 189.715083
2026-02-01 10.671648 14.505254 20.333010 30.584446 50.201606 92.361530 221.062580
2026-02-08 10.205086 14.004367 19.870780 30.412409 51.226018 98.185472 255.353878
2026-02-15 9.757275 13.514918 19.406248 30.218148 52.248126 104.511937 297.859823
2026-02-22 9.339728 13.048442 18.946250 29.987021 53.171713 110.959113 348.191315
2026-03-01 8.996296 12.678375 18.618857 29.968366 54.562770 119.196832 417.928077
2026-03-08 8.655738 12.292386 18.235083 29.798089 55.583452 126.791369 497.251783
2026-03-15 8.537362 12.258745 18.453396 30.833261 59.646105 145.540250 690.737135
2026-03-22 8.219129 11.876707 18.030423 30.521870 60.342543 153.517514 829.490446
2026-03-29 7.963896 11.586150 17.750736 30.477939 61.723230 164.675075 1044.362949
2026-04-05 7.776185 11.398969 17.644261 30.787736 64.110497 181.052738 1419.811298
2026-04-12 7.524906 11.090730 17.295123 30.536088 64.914042 191.489728 1799.588620
2026-04-19 7.300764 10.818658 16.996562 30.367324 65.933238 203.617596 2363.173711
2026-04-26 7.107105 10.590454 16.766495 30.330120 67.343528 218.649867 3292.477395